Hurricane Sandy has secured its place in the history books. The mammoth hurricane came late in the season, taking an unusual track through New Jersey toward the center of the country, lasted for days, and created billions of dollars worth of damages. Much of lower New York, including Wall Street, shut down for Sandy’s arrival.
Against that backdrop, a business news story has to be a pretty big deal indeed to capture any attention. Apple delivered, choosing Monday to announce major changes to their leadership team. Long-time Jobs protege Scott Forestall, head of the iOS division, is on his way out the door, as is retail store head John Browett.
Deriving Actionable Information From An Uncertain Environment
Hurricane Sandy and the Apple management shake up have one trait in common. Both events introduce a huge amount of uncertainty into the lives of many.
For people living along the East Coast, knowing where the storm would hit, how intense it would be, and what type of winds and precipitation it would deliver, dictated their decision making. Should they evacuate? Should they stay put? These are life and death decisions that have to be made in the absence of perfect information.
Apple’s investors and brand loyalists are watching Tim Cook and the remaining leadership with the same intensity those in Sandy’s path watched the Weather Channel. The company’s been through a lot, and it doesn’t look like its been weathering the storms with grace. After losing Steve Jobs, Apple finds itself in an increasingly crowded and competitive gadget marketplace. Apple Maps floundered badly out of the gate, very visibly. Are the winds of change lining up to blow Apple out of its long-held dominant position?
In many ways, Hurricane Sandy was very different from the typical hurricane. It brought together combinations of meteorological factors that many weather forecasters had never seen before. Despite this, the track, intensity, and duration of the storm was predicted with a fairly high level of accuracy. This is due to the robustness of the models used in weather forecasting, where historical data is combined with scientific insight about the behavior of storms. The information generated is reliable enough to guide life-or-death decision making.
A similarly robust model can be built for any brand. Bringing together historical data, focused on identifying those factors most responsible for brand success, coupled with psychological insight about the behavior of customers, results in a Brand Model organizations can use to identify the direction most likely to result in profitable growth. This type of information is critical to have when guiding a company through a difficult period.
Will Tim Cook’s move toward a more collaborative, unified leadership structure result in an increase in the innovative, empowering devices that allowed Apple’s most loyal customers to express themselves so well? Or is he removing a vital element to the creative process, gutting the company’s vision at exactly the time it is needed the most? Close observation of consumer response going forward will provide the answers to these inquiries, and if he’s smart, Tim Cook will be listening. That’s the only way to steer your company through the winds of change.