All eyes were on the sky last week, watching the approach of Hurricane Issac. The storm moved slowly but steadily toward the Florida coast. This was a problem for the organizers of the Republican National Convention, hosted this year in Tampa.
It’s never a good idea to minimize the potential impact of a hurricane. Even smaller storms can do devastating damage. That being said, most people who live in the area have the knowledge and experience to weather the storm safely. Many of the people who attend the Republican National Convention, however, aren’t from Florida. Delegates came from all over the country—and many of them had never been closer to a hurricane than their television set. Ensuring the safety and security of all event attendees is obviously a top priority for RNC organizers. What should they do?
This is the point when we see the value of an accurate weather forecast coming into play. You’d better believe that the decision makers in this situation paid close attention to the models meteorologists were presenting. What was the likelihood the storm would turn and track out to sea, harmlessly winding itself out over open water? What was the likelihood that Issac would hit Florida directly? What about New Orleans—was the city once devastated by Katrina in for another direct hit?
Knowing the odds of every projected scenario helped the RNC organizers decide what to do to best protect their convention attendees. There were also important political considerations to take into account. Florida Governor Rick Scott was scheduled to make a major speech on the first day of the convention. He instead cancelled all appearances, to focus his energies on storm response.
Were these the right decisions? After a storm has come and gone, it’s easy to look back and answer that question. Before the storm, it’s a lot tougher to be certain of your decisions in an uncertain environment. Even the best forecast can not tell us, with 100% precision, where the storm is going to go until it actually hits. The best we can do is anticipate, based on probabilities and past experiences (the RNC had to delay their 2008 convention as well, due to the impact of Hurricane Gustav), and act accordingly.
Social Media & The Perfect Storm
Watching this story play out (and being in Florida, we’re not exactly disinterested observers of hurricanes!) one thing that becomes clear is how dependent decision makers are on the accuracy and reliability of the weather forecast. Should the convention open on time? Should it be held at all? Should everyone who was planning to attend actually show up? All of these decisions were dependent on insights gleaned from examining the weather forecast.
This model, while not absolutely definitive, was considered reliable enough to guide major decisions, costing hundreds of thousands —if not millions— of dollars. The RNC is reacting conservatively, making choices to preserve not only the safety and security of their attendees, but their brand image as well. We’re not political commentators here, but it’s safe to say that neither political party would want to be perceived as partying and having a good time while a natural disaster unfolded, particularly in New Orleans.
Wouldn’t it be nice if we had the ability to forecast social media interactions the same way we track hurricanes? Knowing when not implementing a plan, no matter how much time and resources has been devoted to it, is the right decision for the greater good is a tremendous strategic advantage. You act differently when you know the storm of public contempt and derision is headed your way.
Had McDonald’s known ahead of time what would have happened when they launched the #mcdstories hashtag last year, they could have sidestepped an embarrassing debacle. Kenneth Cole would have known better than to use the Egypt uprising as a sales promotion hook. Weather forecasts help ensure safe events in real life. If you’re seeking some measure of security for your brand in the dynamic environment of social media, you need a comparable forecasting tool to gauge public reaction to your content before you post it. This predictability is essential to find a safe port when storm winds are blowing. That’s the value of putting Customers First.