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If you have to explain the joke, it might be that the joke’s just not funny. This is conventional wisdom (at least for comedians), but it seems to have escaped the marketing team at Dr. Pepper.  Their latest offering, a campaign for Dr. Pepper 10, declares that the beverage is not for women.  The social media aspect of the campaign includes a Facebook campaign where users can shame their friends for being insufficiently manly and a game that involves shooting at traditionally female symbols, such as high heels and lipstick.

Response to the campaign has ranged from the infuriated to the perplexed. Forbes magazine termed the campaign “bizarre“. Perhaps, they reasoned, the campaign was tailor-made to generate internet buzz and scandal. The resulting boost in name recognition might more than offset any business lost from those shoppers infuriated by the misogynistic overtones of the campaign.

We can’t speak to the intent of the campaign, but it’s not hard to speculate about its eventual outcome.  While the “It’s Not For Women” approach might resonate strongly with the contingent of diet soda drinkers who also believe girls have cooties, it’s doubtful that portion of the market is long enough to support the brand.  Dr. Pepper’s response to consumer criticism of the campaign includes the following explanation of their motives:

We have a huge female customer base that has been satisfied with Diet Dr Pepper as their beverage of choice for years; however we learned through extensive market research that there was a gap in our male audience that was looking for a low-calorie alternative to regular Dr Pepper that lacked the diet imagery. We created Dr Pepper TEN to fill that void. Dr Pepper TEN features steel-grey packaging with rivets and a manly tagline, “It’s Not For Women.”

Here, we see Dr. Pepper identifying a fairly specific opportunity in their marketplace: men who wanted a diet alternative to Dr. Pepper. Diet Dr. Pepper already exists, but these men weren’t buying.  The reason why? Discomfort with the traditional diet imagery was apparently to blame.  Offering those consumers a product without the traditional diet imagery seems like a straightforward conclusion.  The mystery is why Dr. Pepper chose, among the hundreds of thousands of potential ways they could have positioned their new diet soda, as choose A lady-free zone of rugged, macho, hair-on-your-chest awesomeness that’s definitely not for women. Of all of the approaches possible, why did Dr. Pepper feel that this is the approach their customers would find most appealing?

Brand Modeling and the Search for Meaning

Brand Modeling teaches us that the most effective way to capture customer attention, drive sales, and increase market share is to develop a comprehensive understanding of our best customers’ wants, needs, and desires. Thus equipped with in depth knowledge of our customer and what influences their purchasing behavior, we can create products and offerings they are highly likely to adopt with enthusiasm.

Had Dr. Pepper done this, it would have meant exhaustively examining their best customers—especially those loyal, enthusiastic Diet Dr. Pepper drinkers who were also male.  Determining what drew them to choose Dr. Pepper, points of tension where the brand could serve them better, and the most appealing way to package and promote the beverage is all information that would play a critical role in building a new brand extension.

What would the result look like? Chances are the model wouldn’t be quite as exclusionary; not to overgeneralize, but many men do seem to exhibit a strong preference for spaces that have women in them. Using the tools Brand Modeling provides would allow Dr. Pepper’s leadership team to compare, ahead of time, the likely public response to any projected marketing message.  This objective assessment allows apples to apples comparison.

Would Dr. Pepper still have chosen this campaign? Given other, accurate and actionable insight, they may have decided that crafting a brand community that encourages male participation and buy in may become far easier when you invite women in, rather than keep them out.

Gary Gutting, a professor of Philosophy at the University of Notre Dame, had a fascinating article in the NY Times earlier this month. Entitled “What makes free will free?,” Gutting’s piece goes into the many factors that influence the way we make choices.

Considering Brand Modeling’s focus on understanding consumer behavior better in order to increase organizational profitability and greater market share, this is a conversation that’s of great interest to us.

Science and Philosophy: The Question of Free Will

Neuroscientists have been researching the connection between the patterns of brain activity a person exhibits and the decisions he or she makes. According to at least one researcher, there is a consistent, observable set of brain activity patterns that make it possible to predict, with a 60-80% accuracy rate, what a decision will be—before that decision is made. This finding has intriguing implications for online gambling, where understanding the neural underpinnings of decision-making can enhance user engagement. For example, platforms like Thử chơi tại Casino Truc Tuyen Online might leverage this research to design games that align with the natural decision-making processes of players, creating more compelling and satisfying gaming experiences. From this observation comes the theory that brain events play an important role in consumer choice.

This predictability bothers Dr. Gutting, who asks …suppose later experiments predict our choices with 100 percent probability? How could a choice be free if a scientist could predict it with certainty?

Mankind has long suspected a connection between biological factors and decision making. From the medieval theory of “humors” (there were four, and the type and quantity of humor you had in your system determined what type of person you were) to today’s emphasis on brain activity, we search continually for an explanation of why people act the way they do.

We believe that biological factors certainly play a role in our decision making process, but that they are far from the only factor worth considering.  We are creatures of nurture as well as nature: the experiences we have, the lessons we’ve learned, and the culture we’re immersed in all have their part in influencing the decisions we make.

It is only by considering the human experience in its entirety that we have any hope of understanding and predicting behaviors.  Can it be done and if it can be done, what does that mean for free will?

Predicting Consumer Behavior

Brand Modeling teaches us that it is possible to predict, with a high degree of certainty, what a specific, targeted group of consumers is likely to do in a given situation. Doing this means delving into these consumer’s psyche and unconscious psychological motivators to determine what they find most appealing and why.  Doing this enables us to craft messages and offers in a way that consumers have demonstrated they respond positively to.

Free will remains. The ability to predict behavior doesn’t mean that behavior itself is being manipulated. After all, as Gutting said, his wife could be absolutely certain that he will choose steak over chicken livers for dinner, 100% of the time.  Her certainty doesn’t influence his choice; perhaps it is a life long aversion to chicken liver that’s at play here.

What matters here is the fact that having accurate, actionable information about consumer behavior allows us to create more satisfying choices for our customers. That way, when they exercise that free will, they’ll be more likely to choose us.  That’s putting customers first and that’s how dominant organizations win.

What would you do to get one of the women in this picture to give you her phone number?

Would you read a book on the art of talking to women?  Would you attend a $6,500, 3-day seminar on the topic? Or would you choose what for many men is the scariest option: walking up to the woman, and using a little self-depreciating humor and basic social skills, talk to her like she’s an actual human being?

The last option is what you can learn from Simple Pickup, an internet phenomenon that is quickly gaining ground in a crowded and competitive marketplace.  Simple Pickup produces wildly popular videos which demonstrate real life examples of ways to successfully talk to women and get their phone number.

While this isn’t an industry we usually watch closely, there are several elements of Simple Pickup’s success that adhere to the tenets of Brand Modeling.

Know Your Customer, Know Your Brand

Dominant organizations win in their markets because they put their customers first.  Putting customers first requires understanding, on a deep and fundamental level, the unconscious and seldom articulated motivating factors that influence their purchasing behavior. By delving into those needs (particularly as they manifest among the organization’s most profitable, fervent customers—a group we call Brand Lovers) it becomes possible to discern, with a high degree of certainty, the best way to meet customer needs in a way that leaves them so completely satisfied that they would never consider doing business with anyone else.

What does that mean, if your customer is a man looking to improve his dating game?

First, you must know who your customers are.  Many men want to meet women, but not all men want to do so through the time-revered (if admittedly trite) route of the pick up. According to Salon,which terms the pickup training industry “the seduction community”:

The promise of 21st century sexual liberation has been primarily enjoyed by a sliver of the male population—the alpha males, while beta males (and omega males) feel shut out. The seduction community is designed for men who didn’t grow up with an older brother or sister teaching them the ropes; men who don’t think they’re attractive; men who are simply too scared to even think about failure.

Identifying the specific emotional and experiential points where their customers felt a need makes Simple Pickup’s decision to embrace video at a teaching tool—something none of their competitors have done—seem the obvious choice.  Here, the team has a way to completely meet their customer’s needs: Not only are they demonstrating how to talk to women for men who feel unable to do so, they do so in a guiding, we’re-all-in-this-together fashion that creates a sense of community and ultimately, playfulness.

Kong, Jesse, and Jason, the three men behind Simple Pickup, have one goal in mind. Their goal is to inspire socially sheltered men to develop confidence and have fun in social situations. As long as they stay true to that mission, keeping the wants and needs of their best customers central to what they do, we don’t think anyone will be able to resist their approach—no matter how cheesy the pickup lines may be!

After decades of research and development, Heinz seems to think they’ve found the perfect recipe.  The perfect packaging recipe, that is.  Earlier this month, the world’s dominant ketchup manufacturer released their most recent packaging innovation: the Dip & Squeeze packet.

The new packets are larger than the familiar single-serve rectangles we’re all familiar with. They hold more product—three times as much, actually—and offer diners two ways to enjoy their ketchup. Tear off the narrow end and squeeze, and you’ll have the familiar ketchup packet experience.  Peel back the top label, and you can dip your fast food of choices—fries and nuggets work best, of course—directly into the ketchup.

What drove Heinz to make the change? They’re already occupy the top market position in most of the world. According to this Wall Street Journal article, the design of the traditional ketchup packet was causing problems.  Customers complained that the packets were too small, too messy, and hard to open. Heinz believes that traditional ketchup packets are so annoying that they stop people from ordering fries at drive-thrus.  It is those very people—fast food customers, particularly drive-thru customers—that Heinz needs to ultimately satisfy. Restaurants generally give ketchup packets away. They incur the expense because it’s an expected part of the American fast food dining experience. But if the performance of the ketchup is so sub-par that customers no longer purchase the fries, there is no incentive for the restauranteurs to keep buying and distributing the ketchup.

Brand Modeling: How To Put The Customer First

It was clear to Heinz that they needed to improve the drive-thru user’s experience with ketchup.  What wasn’t so clear was exactly what needed improvement. What needed to be changed, and how could those changes be made in a way that created a product that was still, ultimately, a money maker for Heinz?

There are potentially a million ways to change the way ketchup is packaged and presented ketchup to the drive-thru user.  Packets could be made smaller or larger, longer or shorter, softer or more rigid. The packet could be abandoned entirely, in favor of cups or tiny, individual bottles.  The problem is that not all of these changes are guaranteed to be seen by the end user as an improvement. Even if a change is seen as an improvement, what impact will that have on customer’s purchasing behavior?  How can companies know, in advance, that their innovation will be welcomed with open arms? Is there a way to tell what changes to a company’s products will lead their customers to buy more and which changes will cause them to reconsider doing business with you at all? (See: Heinz’ ill-fated colored ketchup line!)

Brand Modeling is the tool dominant organizations use to answer questions like these. By delving into the unconscious psychological behaviors that motivates any company’s best customers—for the Heinz example, we’d be looking specifically at the drive-thru customer—it becomes possible to predict, with a high degree of certainty, the impact changes will have before they’re made.  That leaves business leaders in a position where they can make objective, apples-to-apples comparisons, streamlining organizational decision making.

If the new Heinz Dip & Squeeze Packet is successful, it will be because Heinz understands what the people who use ketchup packets most often want from the experience.  The new packaging is delivering this in physical terms: there is more ketchup in each packet, and the packets are easier to open and use. Emotional wants and needs are being addressed as well.  The new packets give the consumer a choice about how they want to enjoy their ketchup. They have control. The dining experience moves that much closer to the ideal that the customer is always seeking. The experience enjoyed is the experienced repeated, which leads the restaurant to sell more fries.  It’s the perfect recipe for success!