Gary Gutting, a professor of Philosophy at the University of Notre Dame, had a fascinating article in the NY Times earlier this month. Entitled “What makes free will free?,” Gutting’s piece goes into the many factors that influence the way we make choices.
Considering Brand Modeling’s focus on understanding consumer behavior better in order to increase organizational profitability and greater market share, this is a conversation that’s of great interest to us.
Science and Philosophy: The Question of Free Will
Neuroscientists have been researching the connection between the patterns of brain activity a person exhibits and the decisions he or she makes. According to at least one researcher, there is a consistent, observable set of brain activity patterns that make it possible to predict, with a 60-80% accuracy rate, what a decision will be—before that decision is made. From this observation comes the theory that brain events play an important role in consumer choice.
This predictability bothers Dr. Gutting, who asks …suppose later experiments predict our choices with 100 percent probability? How could a choice be free if a scientist could predict it with certainty?
Mankind has long suspected a connection between biological factors and decision making. From the medieval theory of “humors” (there were four, and the type and quantity of humor you had in your system determined what type of person you were) to today’s emphasis on brain activity, we search continually for an explanation of why people act the way they do.
We believe that biological factors certainly play a role in our decision making process, but that they are far from the only factor worth considering. We are creatures of nurture as well as nature: the experiences we have, the lessons we’ve learned, and the culture we’re immersed in all have their part in influencing the decisions we make.
It is only by considering the human experience in its entirety that we have any hope of understanding and predicting behaviors. Can it be done and if it can be done, what does that mean for free will?
Predicting Consumer Behavior
Brand Modeling teaches us that it is possible to predict, with a high degree of certainty, what a specific, targeted group of consumers is likely to do in a given situation. Doing this means delving into these consumer’s psyche and unconscious psychological motivators to determine what they find most appealing and why. Doing this enables us to craft messages and offers in a way that consumers have demonstrated they respond positively to.
Free will remains. The ability to predict behavior doesn’t mean that behavior itself is being manipulated. After all, as Gutting said, his wife could be absolutely certain that he will choose steak over chicken livers for dinner, 100% of the time. Her certainty doesn’t influence his choice; perhaps it is a life long aversion to chicken liver that’s at play here.
What matters here is the fact that having accurate, actionable information about consumer behavior allows us to create more satisfying choices for our customers. That way, when they exercise that free will, they’ll be more likely to choose us. That’s putting customers first and that’s how dominant organizations win.